[SMM Analysis] In July, the metal content of NPI nationwide decreased by 8.10% MoM, while it is expected to increase by 1.09% MoM in August.

In July 2025, the physical content of NPI production nationwide increased by 2.11% MoM, while the metal content decreased by 8.10% MoM. The physical content of NPI nationwide increased MoM in July, but the metal content decreased. In July, nickel ore prices in the Philippines fell to a certain extent. Meanwhile, driven by macro sentiment, the prices of finished stainless steel products recovered, and NPI prices also rose. However, despite a reduction in losses, domestic smelters still faced losses. Under the circumstances of continuous losses, most high-grade NPI smelters continued to operate at low capacity, and the metal content of domestic high-grade NPI decreased by 7.87% MoM. On the other hand, downstream stainless steel production increased in July. Driven by the recovery of 200-series stainless steel production, both the physical content and metal content of domestic low-grade NPI increased MoM. Meanwhile, the average grade of NPI also decreased by 0.4 percentage points MoM in July. In summary, the physical content of domestic NPI increased MoM in July, but the metal content continued to decline.

Looking ahead, it is expected that with the approaching September-October peak season and the increase in production by downstream stainless steel enterprises, the physical content and metal content of domestic NPI will both stabilize and slightly rebound. SMM expects that in August 2025, the physical content of NPI production nationwide will increase by 1.73% MoM, and the metal content will increase by 1.09% MoM. In addition, under the combined effects of smelters maintaining low-capacity operations and a certain recovery in consumption, SMM expects that the price center of high-grade NPI will continue to rise in August.